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Russia Military Update - December, 2010

Politics and diplomacy are not my forte (although, I read a lot about them). What interests me more are the military aspects of geopolitics. As they say, the mightier your sword, the further your diplomacy can reach . Being also a patriotic Armenian, I look at military matters concerning our nation. But, as important as the military situation is in our tiny republic, we should not forget about the greater picture; I mean the larger military picture in the Caucasus as whole and the nations that surround it. Since the brief August 2008 war between Russia and Georgia, there have been many developments in the military balance in the Caucasus. The most significant changes concern the Russians themselves. By putting together bits and pieces of common military related news, I will describe what the Kremlin’s military has been up to for the last couple of years in the Caucasus region.

But let me begin with a bit of history. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the armed forces of Russia had to live with massive cuts in the military budget. Throughout the nineties and the early years of the 21st century, the descendants of the mighty Red Army received little in new weapons while the existing ones were slowly being degraded or becoming obsolete. Priority was given to the Strategic Nuclear Forces, at the expense of the conventional Army, Navy and Air Force. Later on, and under the leadership of V. V. Putin, Russia and its economy began to rise… and so did its defense spending. Newer equipment began to slowly trickle in, but the units in the South-West (including the volatile Caucasus region) were at the bottom of the pecking order. Russia’s Black Sea fleet received no new ships for well over a decade. The 58th Russian Army that defeated the Georgians did not field first-class weapons and equipment.

The combat aircraft that were bombing Georgian troops and airfields were the same ones that were used to bomb the Mujaheddin in Afghanistan in the eighties. The almost 40 year old destroyer Smetlyvy was one of the veteran warships covering the amphibious landings in Abkhazia… After that brief war, change was expected….and, oh boy, things have changed. Now it seems that the once neglected South-West based units are at the top of priorities for the Kremlin planners, both civilian and military. Almost every new type of weaponry is going there. I compiled below a number of relevant equipment additions that show the importance the Russians are attaching to the Caucasus (see the following posts). Why are Putin and Medvedev doing this? Is it to prevent another aggressive act from Saakashvili et al? Or, is it much more than that?

After routing Saakashvili’s Western trained troops and wrestling away the Ukraine from the grips of the Western inspired Orange Revolution, Russians lost no time in extending the lease of the Sevastopol Naval base in Ukraine (till 2042)and they did the same for their Gyumri and Erebuni bases in Armenia (until 2044). It also took them no time to establish permanent military bases in the new republics of Abkhazia (49 year free lease) and South Ossetia (99 year free lease). As I mentioned in the beginning, I am not a political expert, but I can put 2 and 2 together. Longer term military presence agreements in Ukraine and Armenia, new military bases in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, latest weapons systems and aircraft and a whole new series of warships for the Black Sea can mean one thing: The Kremlin is giving top priority to the Caucasus and Black Sea area .

The Russians are there to stay and are getting ready for any possible future armed conflict. They want to keep the region under their control and they don’t want to let Turkey, Iran or the West call the shots there. The message they are sending is loud and clear. The Russians are not only relying on their military might, they are also relying on their allies in the region - the Abkazhians, the Ossetians and the Armenians. The Orthodox Christian Russians know all too well who their long-term allies are and who their foes are. The Russians have fought Turkic nations for centuries and they have always been back-stabbed by various Muslim clans in the Caucasus. Any short-term agreements or business deals at occur between Russians and the Turks, Azeris or Iranians are exactly that - short-term. I believe the same applies to the current relatively speaking “warmer” relationship between the West and Russia. Yes, they publicly say the “reset button” is working. But, in my humble opinion, this is also temporary. Over the long-term, they are all foes or, at the very least, they are serious rivals/competitors.

The struggle for the control of the greater Caucasus between the Russians, the Anglo-American pact, Turkey and Iran continues. The Russian side is currently the strongest contender, and it is still getting stronger. To further my point, the picture you see below sums it all up:

Here they are, in this photo taken in one of the new bases in Abkhazia . one can see the latest Russian tank (T-90), the latest infantry carrier (BMP-3) and the latest self-propelled artillery (MSTA-S). During the 08.08.08 war, the 58th Army based in the Caucasus had nothing better than the older T-72, BMP-2 and Akaccia. Some units were even using hopelessly obsolete T-62 tanks and BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles. Huge difference. The following links are of additional information regarding Russia's military presence in the region and detailed information regarding Georgia's military loses during its war against the Russian Federation:

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Black Sea Fleet to get 18 new warships and renew naval aviation till 2020

This article talks about the current plans to re-equip the Black Sea Fleet with whole series of freshly built warships and submarines. Construction has already started on a corvette and a submarine with work on the first frigate to start before the end of this year. Since the nineties the BSF was the most neglected fleet with some of the oldest warships still soldiering on. Over the last 20 years, with many warships being decommissioned, the fleet shrank so much in quantity and quality that they could no longer maintain a permanent presence in the Mediterranean. Now, almost with a snap of the fingers, the Sevastopol based Black Sea Fleet has more frigates, corvettes, landing ships and submarines being built than the mightiest and traditionally the most important Russian naval force, the Northern Fleet.

Zoravar

Black Sea Fleet (BSF) will receive six Project 22350 frigates, six Project 677 diesel submarines, two Project 11711 large landing ships, four ships of other projects, modernized bombers Su-24M instead of obsolete versions, and ASW aircrafts Il-38 instead of amphibious aircrafts Be-12 till 2020, reports Zerkalo Nedeli referring to Russian Navy Main HQ. Reinforcement of Black Sea Fleet will be conducted under State Arms Program 2011-2020, added the source. Navy Main HQ previously said that most of BSF ships have been in service for over 35 years, so by 2015 when new ships are commissioned into BSF the whole fleet would be in need of replacement. Being in operation for over 40 years, ASW aircrafts will be subject to decommission by that time.

On Oct 20 Russian and Ukrainian defense ministers signed a document providing that Russia will inform Ukraine about manpower, arms, and strength of Black Sea Fleet. Anatoly Serdiukov pointed out that the significant agreement signed is the first step to renewal of Black Sea Fleet. Currently, Russian BSF has less than 40 warships, including the fleet's flagship Guard missile cruiser Moskva; two submarines (only B-871 Alrosa is operable); two large ASW ships; three frigates; small missile, landing, reconnaissance ships; seagoing minesweepers, and salvage vessels. BSF naval aviation numbers about 35 aircrafts (Su-24, Su-24MR, Be-12, An-2, An-12, An-26) and 20 helicopters (Ka-27, Mi-14, Mi-8). Fleet manpower numbers about 25,000.

Black Sea Fleet (BSF) is an operational-strategic formation of Russian Navy; its main objective is ensuring Russia's military security in the Black Sea. It is believed that BSF was established on May 13, 1783 when the group of warships from disbanded Azov Flotilla led by Vice Admiral F. A. Klokachev arrived to Akhtiarskaya Harbor. Through over 200 years of its history, Black Sea Fleet took part in many campaigns, including Russo-Turkish wars, French War, the Great Patriotic War. Black Sea Fleet has written glorious pages in Russian Navy's chronicles; they are Battle of Tendra (1790), Battle of Sinop (1853), defense of Sevastopol (1854-1855, 1941-1942) and etc. During the Great Patriotic War BSF conducted 24 landing operations, scuppered 835 and damaged 539 enemy's ships. The breakup of the USSR made a serious strike upon Black Sea Fleet; according to bilateral agreements between Russia and Ukraine signed in 1995 and 1997 Soviet BSF was divided into Russian Black Sea Fleet and Ukrainian Navy. Nowadays, the greater part of the fleet's infrastructure is located in Ukraine. In 2008 Black Sea Fleet participated in Russian-Georgian conflict. Black Sea Fleet HQ is situated in Sevastopol. Some BSF naval bases are Novorossiysk, Sevastopol; under construction are Novorossiysk and Ochamchira (Abkhazia). Since July 17, 2007 BSF Commander is VADM Alexander Kletskov.

Russia's Caucasus is Priority for Mi-28N Deliveries

The Mi-28 Night Hunter is the replacement of the world famous Mi-24 Krokodil (Hind). During 2009, the first operational squadron of these ultramodern and very capable combat helicopters were based not near Moscow or St. Petersburg, not in Russia's Far East, not in central Asia…but at Buddenovsk in the Caucasus.

Zoravar

Yesterday Rostov Helicopter Plant (‘Rosvertol’) General Director Boris Slyusar said the Russian Armed Forces are the priority for Mi-28N ‘Night Hunter’ deliveries, despite what he claims are many profitable offers from abroad. According to ITAR-TASS, he said: “We have many requests for the Mi-28N, but the RF Defense Ministry still doesn’t have these systems in sufficient quantity, and we will take its interests into account first.” Slyusar didn’t give the number of Mi-28N helicopters in Russian forces, but he said the North Caucasus Military District (NCMD) has about 20 ‘Night Hunters,’ and there will be more. He added: “Our task is to create in the district’s [NCMD's] troops in 2011 two groupings of Mi-28N.”

Who knows what he means by groupings. Squadrons? A second squadron or two additional squadrons? The information on the number of Mi-28N delivered is unclear and contradictory. In late 2009, Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Ivanov rather dubiously claimed Russia had already procured 27. In May, a ‘Rosvertol’ marketing official said Russia would receive two squadrons of Mi-28N helicopters before 2011. She said two Mi-28N went to the pilot training center at Torzhok in early 2008, and ten more — apparently for the NCMD’s Budennovsk-based 487th Helicopter Regiment — were delivered in 2009. In mid-2009, ‘Helicopters of Russia’ General Director Andrey Shibitov also told Interfaks-AVN the Russian military had 12 Mi-28N helicopters.

So the question still stands: a second squadron of maybe 10 helicopters, or two additional squadrons? One thing’s certain, this goal’s been pushed from 2010 to 2011. ‘Rosvertol’ General Director Slyusar indicated his company sold 10 billion rubles of products in 2009, and this year sales are more than 15 billion rubles. Receipts from domestic and export sales are about equal. By 2015, the company has an ambitious goal of $1 billion in sales. Slyusar says the company is moving on this plan with modernization, equipment purchases, and people.

Russia Deploys S-300 Missile Systems in Abkhazia

In the fall of 2008, Russia integrated the newly independent republics into its own air defense network. It deployed several S-300 battalions in Abkhazia. Do not be fooled, these air defense missiles are not to counter any air threats from Georgia. The Georgian Air Force is in the process of being dismantled and the handful of remaining of Su-25 warplanes are being offered for sale. The Georgian air arm will from now on consist of helicopters only, they will be attached to the army. These S-300 are to provide cover for Russian troops in case of any larger scale conflict with more capable foes.

Zoravar

Russia announced Wednesday that it has moved a sophisticated anti-aircraft missile system into the republic of Abkhazia, the independence of which Russia recognized in 2008, shortly after the Caucasian war. The deployment of the S-300s drew immediate protest from Georgia. The Foreign Ministry called it an "extremely dangerous and provocative step that presents a threat not only to the Black Sea region but to European security as a whole." The U. S. State Department, however, said the missile deployment was old news, The Associated Press reports. The French Foreign Ministry has said the deployment of Russian S-300 air defense systems in the former Georgian republic of Abkhazia undermines stability in the region. Russian Air Force head Col. Gen. Alexander Zelin said on Wednesday S-300 systems had been placed in Abkhazia to protect the airspace of Abkhazia and the other former Georgian republic of South Ossetia. He did not say how many S-300s had been deployed, RIA Novosti say.